Article |
---|
Article name |
Development Trends of the Demographic Situation in the Trans-Baikal Region |
Authors |
Soldatova N.V. , soldatova@mintrud.e-zab.ru |
Bibliographic description |
|
Section |
Theoretical Studies |
UDK |
314.153 |
DOI |
|
Article type |
|
Annotation |
The paper analyzes the development trends of the demographic situation in the Trans-Baikal
region. It forecasts the rate of births and deaths to 2020 and presents a factor analysis of the birthrate
depending on the intensity measures of the state demographic policy and the number of women of
childbearing age. It suggests that today demographers’ fears about a temporary birthrate increase
thanks to pronatalist measures may be followed by a decrease are justified. The paper considers the
population sex and age pyramid in the Trans-Baikal region and concludes that today’s young people
aged 10–15 make up the smallest group of the population. The author determines the tendencies of
the reproductive behavior, namely the improvement of living conditions will lead to some increase
in the birthrate but changes in the needs for children can give much better results than improvement
of living conditions.
|
Key words |
sex and age pyramid, adolescents, birthrate, reproductive behavior, demographic
policy. |
Article information |
|
References |
1. Prakticheskaja demografija / pod red. L. L. Rybakovskogo; ISPI RAN. M.: CSI, 2005. 199 s.
2. Vozmozhnosti ispol’zovanija pokazatelej rozhdaemosti i reproduktivnogo povedenija pri razrabotke
i ocenke rezul’tativnosti demograficheskoj politiki / V. N. Arhangel’skij; Mosk. gos. un-t im.
M. V. Lomonosova. M., 2006.
3. Problemy razvitija chelovecheskogo potenciala / N. M. Rimashevskaja // Narodonasele-nie.
2007. № 1.
4. Krizis v obwestvennom zdorov’e i social’no-demograficheskom razvitii: glavnye projavlenija,
prichiny, uslovija preodolenija / Ja. A. Lewenko // Sociologicheskie issledova-nija. 2010. № 2. S. 125–130. |
Full article | Development Trends of the Demographic Situation in the Trans-Baikal Region |